The expressway from Shenzhen to Dongguan and Guangzhou, through one of China’s industrial heartlands, boasts almost every vehicle the global market has to offer. Toyota sedans weave aggressively between industrial tankers; sleek Maybachs and Mercedes ferry executives; Teslas silently demand attention; and global staples like the Volkswagen Golf chug along, minding their own business. But they are only half the fleet. Every second car seems to have an unfamiliar nameplate, funky headlights and a whining electric motor. These are the new Chinese automobiles. They are taking over their domestic market. Soon they will take over the world.
The rise of Chinese cars in China is already claiming victims abroad: Volkswagen plans to close factories in Germany for the first time and lay off tens of thousands of workers as it loses share in the world’s biggest auto market. But this is just the beginning. Established carmakers are vowing to cut costs, begging for subsidies, demanding tariffs — which the EU has just enacted — and trying to cling to the internal combustion engine. If the intention is to preserve industrial employment then these efforts are doomed to fail. That is because the shock is not just China or just electric vehicles. It is both at once.
It is important to understand why the automotive powertrain has been the symbol of industrial might for a century. Each one is a marvel of engineering, with thousands of moving parts, machined to a high tolerance and assembled into a compact package, which must function safely for years, despite vibration, mishandling and changing weather. They are difficult to make. An electric vehicle, by contrast, is a battery on wheels — little more than a scaled-up version of a child’s toy. Its supply chain is simpler. Much of the value is in the battery, which is chemical and not mechanical. Even without China, EVs would transform the auto industry.