觀點新型冠狀病毒

Hail the dawn of a V-shaped recovery

On Thursday, thousands of people descended on Bournemouth beach — a popular spot in the south of the UK. They sunbathed close to each other, picnicked, swam, drank, played and left many tonnes of rubbish behind. Local authorities, panicked by potential Covid-19 spreading, declared themselves “absolutely appalled” at the “irresponsible . . . actions of so many people” — and promptly issued 558 parking tickets.

However, there is another way to look at this and similarly crowded US beaches. Both may be less a disaster-in-waiting and more a sign of the pent-up demand that, in normal life, would make a V-shaped economic recovery likely in the developed world.

In most cases, the notion of “pent-up demand” makes no sense. Either people have the urge and the cash to buy something, or they do not. If they have both, there is demand. If they have the urge but not the cash, it is not pent-up demand but wishful thinking.

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