專欄市場

Don’t expect markets to bend it like Beckham

Several years ago, The Daily Telegraph made an unlikely claim about Britain’s most famous footballer. Under the headline “David Beckham a physics genius”, the paper reported a study describing the differential equations that must be solved to compute the trajectory of the ball in a famous Beckham goal.

The relationship between intention and outcome in sport had been highlighted many years earlier in a much cited joint article by the doyen of Chicago economics, Milton Friedman, and the great statistician Leonard Jimmie Savage. Friedman and Savage suggested that the shots of an expert billiard player would be those an accomplished physicist would calculate using knowledge of equations of motion. Like Beckham, the billiard player might not be capable of actually making such calculations, but the assumption

that he did would accurately describe his play.

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約翰•凱

約翰•凱(John Kay)從1995年開始爲英國《金融時報》撰寫經濟和商業的專欄。他曾經任教於倫敦商學院和牛津大學。目前他在倫敦經濟學院擔任訪問學者。他有著非常輝煌的從商經歷,曾經創辦和壯大了一家諮詢公司,然後將其轉售。約翰•凱著述甚豐,其中包括《企業成功的基礎》(Foundations of Corporate Success, 1993)、《市場的真相》(The Truth about Markets, 2003)和近期的《金融投資指南》(The Long and the Short of It: finance and investment for normally intelligent people who are not in the industry)。

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