漸進決策

History vindicates the science of muddling through

When I was a student, Penguin published several collections of classic articles on economics and business. They were an indispensable resource. The first book on business strategy I ever read was the title in that series edited by Dr H. Igor Ansoff. Recently I re-opened it and understood how much changes in the way we think about business strategy – and how much remains the same.

Only one article found there is still widely cited. It was written by the American political scientist Charles Lindblom and published in 1959 under the title The Science of Muddling Through. Prof Lindblom contrasted what he called the “root” method of decision-making with the “branch” approach. The root method required comprehensive evaluation of options in the light of defined objectives. The branch method involved building out, step-by-step and by small degrees, from the current situation. Prof Lindblom claimed “the root method is in fact not usable for complex policy questions”. The practical man must follow the branch approach – the science of muddling through.

Ansoff included Prof Lindblom's article mainly to poke fun at those who acted on this advice. He told students the article was instructive, since “it describes a widely prevalent state of practice in business and government organisations”. We can imagine sniggering MBA students.

您已閱讀33%(1334字),剩餘67%(2754字)包含更多重要資訊,訂閱以繼續探索完整內容,並享受更多專屬服務。
版權聲明:本文版權歸FT中文網所有,未經允許任何單位或個人不得轉載,複製或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵權必究。
設置字型大小×
最小
較小
默認
較大
最大
分享×