It is hard to imagine now but when China acceded to the World Trade Organization more than 17 years ago, China UnionPay did not exist. The state-owned card payments monopoly was created in March 2002, three months after the WTO formally welcomed the country as a member.
Almost two decades later, Visa and Mastercard’s wait to pass through the gates to enter the world’s largest card payments market seems set to end. It is inconceivable that US president Donald Trump would sign off on a trade deal with Beijing that did not finally resolve the impasse.
But when the US card companies finally do enter China, they will confront a radically different market from the one that beckoned in December 2001. And unfortunately for many other multinationals, their frustrating China experience is not an unusual one. In industry after industry, foreign companies have been allowed in only after local champions have secured unassailable positions — or after new technologies and competitors have totally changed the market landscape.