Is the era of corporate cash hoarding coming to an end? Certainly an end is devoutly to be hoped for. If US companies decided to run down cash to increase capital investment, thereby driving a more robust recovery, the benefit would be felt around the world. The global economy would likewise benefit if the corporate misers of Japan and China were to help reduce Asia’s mountain of excess savings.
If there is going to be movement in this direction the likely starting point is the US. According to a new survey of corporate treasurers by the Association for Financial Professionals, US companies are indeed starting to run down their cash balances for the first time since the recession. This squares with evidence in the national accounts. Federal Reserve data show that the US non-financial corporate sector has gone from being a net lender to the rest of the economy, to the tune of nearly $500bn at the peak in 2009, to being a modest net borrower in the first half of this year.
The snag is that this confidence is not being reflected in non-residential private fixed investment, which Fed economists reckon increased at an annual average rate of only about 4 per cent in 2012 and 2013. Net investment after depreciation as a percentage of the capital stock remains subdued, hovering near 1.5 per cent a year.