Maritime disputes between China and its neighbours have reached new levels of tension. The South China Sea, where Beijing has active disputes with both Hanoi and Manila, has become “Asia’s cauldron” in the phrase of Robert Kaplan. In the East China Sea, a stand-off with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands has become especially poisonous. The potential for miscalculation is high. Japanese and Chinese aircraft regularly fly too close to each other for comfort. Last month, Vietnamese fishermen had to be rescued when their boat sank after clashing with a Chinese vessel.
Lives have already been lost. When Beijing moved an oil rig near the disputed Paracel islands in May, anti-Chinese riots swept Vietnam, killing four people. At a recent regional security dialogue, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s combative prime minister, said Tokyo stood ready to help nations facing threats to freedom of navigation. Chuck Hagel, US defence secretary, went one step further by directly accusing Beijing of “intimidation and coercion”. China hit back, saying Mr Hagel’s words were “full of hegemony”. The stakes are being ratcheted up.
How can tensions be cooled? International law could play a role, although it is no panacea. The Philippines has already sought arbitration under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea over its dispute with China. Part of its case questions the scope and validity of the so-called nine-dash line by which Beijing appears to lay claim to virtually the entire sea. China has been unwilling to say precisely what the nine dashes mean. Any light that international arbitrators can shed on this issue would be welcome.