There is nothing inevitable about globalisation; nor about the relative peace between great powers that has prevailed since the second world war. Russia’s annexation of Crimea has upturned the assumption that states cannot extend their borders by force. Rising tensions between China and its neighbours undercut the supposition that economic interdependence is a sufficiently sturdy bulwark against nationalism.
Charles Dickens observed of revolutionary France that it was the best of times and the worst of times, the spring of hope and the winter of despair. More recently, the US National Intelligence Council borrowed from A Tale of Two Cities for the title page in a report about how the world may look in 2030.
You can see why the authors alighted on Dickens’s observation. The tumultuous upheavals in the international system can stir optimism and pessimism in equal measure. The great prosperity that globalisation has brought to the east and south sits alongside the risks and insecurities that accompany the passing of an old order.
