緊縮政策

Austerity is not the only answer to a debt problem
與「高債無憂」論商榷


哈佛大學羅戈夫和萊因哈特:極端的凱恩斯主義者絲毫不顧更長期的減債需要。隨著經濟成長出現新的疲弱跡象,近來他們的聲勢越來越大。其基本邏輯是,低利率使借貸成爲免費午餐。但是,誰能斷定當前的低利率能夠無限期持續下去呢?

The recent debate about the global economy has taken a distressingly simplistic turn. Some now argue that just because one cannot definitely prove very high debt is bad for growth (though the weight of the results still say it is), then high debt is not a problem. Looking beyond the recent public debate about the literature on debt – we have already discussed our results on debt and growth in that context – the debate needs to be reconnected to the facts.

近來圍繞全球經濟的辯論呈現出一種令人擔憂的簡單化傾向。如今有些人辯稱,僅僅因爲不能肯定地證明高債務對成長有害(儘管大部分結果仍支持這一點),那麼債務就不算什麼問題。除了近來圍繞債務研究文獻的公共辯論外(我們已爲此討論了自己在債務與成長關係方面的研究結果),這場辯論再次需要重新與事實聯繫起來。

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