When BarCap put out a note in mid-January on what $120 oil would mean for Asia’s emerging economies, it seemed like a distant prospect. Cue the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and crude has now jumped to over $110 in London trading. Now the question seems a lot more relevant.
Higher oil doesn’t have a uniform effect across Asia – some countries are set to benefit, while for others it could create real problems.
The big winners are the oil producers – namely Malaysia, and to an extent Indonesia. BarCap projects that $120 oil would add 0.9 percentage points to Indonesia’s current account balance as a percentage of GDP, and 3.1 ppts in Malaysia.
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