專欄凱恩斯

Beauty in markets is best judged by the beholder

Whenever performance is measured relative to a comparison group, there is pressure to conform. Do not express opinions that deviate too far from the norm. Submit your research to peer review. Wear the clothes and appreciate the music that people of your age group wear and like. If you do not, you may well be wrong – there is certainly some wisdom in crowds. Even if you are right, the crowd is where your friends are.

What is worth studying, or worth hearing, is subject to objective criteria independent of current fashion. But what is cool, or valuable, is determined only by the views of others. So markets are subject to the vagaries of fashion even more than scholarship and popular opinion, which are subject to it more than enough.

John Maynard Keynes famously likened the processes of stock exchanges to a newspaper beauty contest. The objective was not to choose the most beautiful face but to choose the oneyou thought others would find most beautiful.

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約翰•凱

約翰•凱(John Kay)從1995年開始爲英國《金融時報》撰寫經濟和商業的專欄。他曾經任教於倫敦商學院和牛津大學。目前他在倫敦經濟學院擔任訪問學者。他有著非常輝煌的從商經歷,曾經創辦和壯大了一家諮詢公司,然後將其轉售。約翰•凱著述甚豐,其中包括《企業成功的基礎》(Foundations of Corporate Success, 1993)、《市場的真相》(The Truth about Markets, 2003)和近期的《金融投資指南》(The Long and the Short of It: finance and investment for normally intelligent people who are not in the industry)。

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