ASIAN CAPITAL FLIGHT
亞洲資本出逃


LEX專欄:隨著全球資本撤離亞洲地區,一些亞洲經濟體受到衝擊,其中印度和南韓尤爲明顯。儘管貨幣疲軟且通膨壓力仍存,但兩國降息的可能性越來越大。

This is a different problem from that of the more developed world, where money is jammed up within the system rather than jumping continents. Both, however, bring a cost. Capital flight and central bank intervention has depleted foreign exchange reserves in Asia, excluding Japan and China, by $42bn over the past three months, according to Royal Bank of Scotland. Korea, which has stepped in repeatedly to shore up the won, has spent an estimated $40bn over the past two months in the spot and forward FX markets. That may not be huge in the context of its $240bn of foreign exchange reserves, but whittling back the dollar kitty escalates concerns about Korea's $175bn of short-term liabilities. Rationally, these fears are probably overdone – a fair bit of those liabilities represent trades by onshore foreign banks, and are hedged – but rational behaviour has long since been abandoned.

這與較爲發達國家的問題不同。發達國家的資金「卡」在了系統內部,而不是在不同大陸間轉移。不過,這兩種問題都是有代價的。皇家蘇格蘭銀行(RBOS)表示,過去3個月間,資本外逃和央行干預使亞洲消耗了420億美元的外匯儲備(日本和中國除外)。據估計,過去兩個月內屢次入市支撐韓元的南韓政府,在現貨與遠期外匯市場上投入了400億美元。考慮到南韓2400億美元的外匯儲備規模,這個數字或許不算巨大,但美元儲備的下降,加劇了人們對南韓1750億美元短期債務的擔憂。理性地講,這些擔憂或許有些過慮——其中相當大一部分外債是在岸外資銀行的業務,也得到了對沖——但理性行爲早已被人們拋在腦後。

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