Global recession may be on the horizon. Commodities markets are down off the back of falling demand; Europe faces the prospect of what one economist has called the ‘carbon shock therapy’ of skyrocketing energy prices; and last, but surely not least, the ultimate impact of higher rates remains unknown.
But do not fear, as the humble household may yet save us. These brave souls (ie, you and me) will be relied upon as the ultimate shock-absorber of our times; able to bear the brunt of real income falls due to inflation whilst also spending to avert recession.
The key to this vision being realised (barring another crisis) is the spending of what have become known as pandemic savings. During Covid-19 the gap between consumption and disposable income became very wide, especially in the US and the UK. As a matter of pure arithmetic, this meant that the household sector was — willingly or not — building up quite a nice little kitty for itself.