China’s pledge last September to become carbon-neutral by 2060 was one of the most striking advances in the climate change battle over the past year. The world had been waiting to see how its next draft five-year economic plan would put flesh on the bones of its commitment. Especially given China’s status as the world’s largest carbon emitter, the plan has turned out to be disappointingly short on substance.
Beijing did set a goal for non-fossil fuels to reach 20 per cent of its energy mix by 2025, from 15 per cent in 2020. Yet that is a relatively conservative aim after China nearly doubled wind and solar power installations last year. Premier Li Keqiang also said a plan to ensure carbon output peaked by 2030 would be completed this year. But a commitment to cut carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP was set at 18 per cent, unchanged from the last five-year plan. Analysts estimate that would allow its emissions to continue to grow about 1 per cent a year through to 2025.
International observers had hoped for a far more substantial commitment to move away from coal, such as a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants. According to Global Energy Monitor, a non-profit group, China last year constructed more than three times as much new coal power capacity as all other countries combined. There were hopes, too, that Beijing might set a goal of carbon emissions beginning to fall much sooner than 2030.