The EU is the world’s largest economy. It is home to many of the world’s most successful companies. It has its fair share of political tension and economic crises, but its democracies are robust and its societies stable. And it has an overwhelming interest in maintaining a rules-based system of global governance. Why then is its influence in the world so small?
The reason is not so much the proverbial lack of a single telephone number. The deeper problem is a permanent state of dependence: on Russia for energy supplies; on the US for defence; and on the rest of the world to absorb the EU’s current account surpluses.
The majority of EU countries that are also Nato member states promised in 2006 to increase their defence budget to 2 per cent of GDP. Only four can claim to have met or nearly met the target — the UK, Poland, Greece and Estonia. France is not far off, but Germany’s defence expenditure was only 1.24 per cent last year. German media are full of reports about the decrepit state of the Bundeswehr. German Tornado warplanes are no longer considered fit for Nato missions. The country has scope to increase defence spending if it wanted to. But the combination of a self-imposed rule to run permanent fiscal surpluses and the non-defence spending priorities of the recently constituted grand coalition prevent this.