China’s recent woes — decelerating growth, falling currency, plunging stock market — suggest that the world’s main growth engine is spluttering. For some, it’s all very reminiscent of Japan in the early-1990s: a boom followed by a prolonged bust against a less-than-helpful demographic backdrop. (For a nuanced view on the comparison, see Gavyn Davies.) Not all financial upheavals, however, lead to a permanent plunge in economic growth. And not all economies are quite like China’s.
成長減速、貨幣貶值、股市暴跌——中國近期的困難似乎表明世界主要成長引擎正在失去動力。對一些人來說,這一切很像上世紀90年代初的日本:一段繁榮期之後出現長期低迷,背景是不利的人口結構趨勢。然而,不是所有的金融動盪都會引起經濟成長的永久下挫。也不是所有經濟體都和中國經濟相像。
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