It is not easy being China. Growth is slowing but the reforms it needs pull in opposing directions. Faltering economies need easier money but a weak renminbi favours exporters over consumers — precisely the opposite of the rebalancing its investment-reliant economy needs. Meanwhile, the prospect of a falling currency offers speculators a one-way bet against the renminbi. While hard to measure directly, the scale of the resulting capital outflow is clear from China’s falling reserves. It is likely to continue: rates have fallen and will probably fall further. Policy mis-steps have eroded confidence in China’s authorities.
Investors could be forgiven for eschewing onshore assets as volatility and uncertainty have increased. Stock market indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen have dropped nearly half since mid-2015 peaks. In a sign of the lack of confidence in China’s policy choices, the offshore index comprising Hong Kong-listed Chinese state-owned enterprises — the H shares — is trading less than six times this year’s forecast earnings. That is below the nadirs of 2003 (when the city was hit by severe acute respiratory syndrome) and the global financial crisis.
Facing capital flight, rumblings about a new policy — tighter capital controls — are getting louder. While frowned on by free-marketeers, these have some persuasive precedents in Asia and can help a country keep some control over exchange and interest rates through the sort of transition China is experiencing. In 1998, at the height of the Asian financial crisis, Malaysia introduced controls to stem capital flight and force repatriation. Its stock market returned more than 300 per cent over the following three years, handsomely beating world markets.