The people of Hong Kong may now have to wait years to vote after the city rejected Beijing’s offer of a castrated form of universal suffrage. [LINK: BY CONTRAST?]By contrast, the people of Taiwan, electoral eunuchs no more after a two-decade democratic evolution, will be going to the polls again in about six months. Their choice could be explosive. In all likelihood, January’s presidential election will result in a victory for Tsai Ing-wen, an opposition leader whom Beijing — and the US — has previously depicted as a dangerous splittist.
Within the constraints of the “one-country, two systems” framework, Beijing has mostly called the shots in Hong Kong since the city reverted to Chinese rule 18 years ago this week. Not so in Taiwan. The island has remained in effect independent since it was lost, first to the Japanese in 1895 and then to the retreating Kuomintang nationalist army in 1949. Authoritarian for decades, Taiwan has become a rambunctious democracy. In January, that rambunctiousness will test the patience of Beijing, which is sworn to reclaim what it considers an inalienable part of China — by force if necessary.
The situations in Hong Kong and Taiwan pose prickly problems for Xi Jinping. Hong Kong’s rejection of Beijing’s deal could plausibly be good news for China’s president. He can now say he offered a form of democracy but that ungrateful Hongkongers slapped it down. Theoretically, that could put the issue to rest for years. In practice, it leaves Hong Kong about as dormant as an active volcano.