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History is the antidote to fear of falling prices

Our perception that inflation is the normal condition is no more than a reflection of the experience of people alive today. In 1913, unlike now, a pound or a dollar would have bought the same goods as a century earlier. The longest semi-official price series we have reports a 140 fold rise in prices in the UK since 1750 — but even then all the increase up to 1938 is accounted for by inflation during the Napoleonic and first world wars. Indeed, while the price level roughly doubled during both these episodes, it fell slightly over the rest of the period.

This historical perspective may offer a partial antidote to the fears of investors over the arrival of deflation in Europe, where a euro today buys more than a year ago. But there are other reasons not to panic. For one, there is no qualitative difference between an economy in which prices are rising slightly and one in which prices are falling slightly. Unlike water, liquid at temperatures above 0C and solid below, the consumer price index is a complex statistical construct not a physical fact. You can see and feel the difference between ice and water, and you can skate on one but not the other. Similarly, with a commodity such as petrol, you can tell whether the price at the pump is rising or falling because petrol is a homogeneous product that changes little over time.

But what has been happening with cars, or smartphones, or medical services? In the CPI, the price component for cars comprises the sticker price adjusted for changes in quality. Such quality adjustment is subjective — and, it is generally conceded, too low. So we could have been experiencing deflation for years without realising it.

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約翰•凱

約翰•凱(John Kay)從1995年開始爲英國《金融時報》撰寫經濟和商業的專欄。他曾經任教於倫敦商學院和牛津大學。目前他在倫敦經濟學院擔任訪問學者。他有著非常輝煌的從商經歷,曾經創辦和壯大了一家諮詢公司,然後將其轉售。約翰•凱著述甚豐,其中包括《企業成功的基礎》(Foundations of Corporate Success, 1993)、《市場的真相》(The Truth about Markets, 2003)和近期的《金融投資指南》(The Long and the Short of It: finance and investment for normally intelligent people who are not in the industry)。

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