“Trying to forecast oil demand, supply and price in today’s market is like trying to paint the wings of an aeroplane in flight. Even if one succeeds in covering the subject, it’s unlikely to be a tidy job.”
Howard Kauffmann, then president of Exxon, was speaking in 1982, as the price of crude declined from its post-oil-shock high, but his comments may as well apply today, with prices weak and pundits who warned of “peak oil” a year or two ago fretting instead about “peak demand”.
Oil majors are price takers: the level at which they sell their product is largely dictated by the market. Not surprisingly, when the price falls, they have to adjust other costs.
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