There are no signs that China’s slowdown has bottomed out. A turnround would require some combination of a pickup in investment, exports or consumption in the midst of current efforts to deleverage and this is unlikely to happen soon. More than a decade ago during the Asian financial crisis, China was able to revive growth despite a similarly severe debt problem by tapping buoyant global markets facilitated by its accession to the World Trade Organisation.
目前沒有跡象顯示中國的經濟放緩已經觸底。經濟形勢好轉需要多種因素的疊加作用,包括投資、出口或者消費回升,在當前官方試圖引導「去槓桿」的大環境下,這不太可能很快發生。十多年前,在亞洲金融危機期間,中國在面臨與當前類似的嚴重債務問題的情況下成功重振經濟成長,靠的是利用繁榮的國際市場,而中國加入世貿組織(World Trade Organisation)爲此提供了便利。