Chinese property is the most important sector in the global economy. It has been pivotal in the country’s economic development, provided lucrative business for industrial commodity producers from Perth to Peru, and been the backbone of the surge in world exports to China. In the past few years, predictions that the sector was about to implode at any moment have not been borne out – but now is the time for the world to pay attention. Property activity indicators have been trending lower since mid-2013, and the downturn in the sector now threatens to turn into a bust. At best, China is entering a deflationary phase at a time of global fragility.
中國房地產是全球經濟中最重要的行業，不但在中國經濟發展中發揮著關鍵作用，並且爲從珀斯到祕魯的工業大宗商品生產商帶來利潤豐厚的業務，同時還是世界各國對華出口飆升的支柱。在過去幾年裏，關於中國房地產市場即將崩盤的預言不絕於耳，但它們始終未能應驗。不過現在世界應該當心了。自2013年年中以來，中國房地產活動指標持續走低，如今看來，該行業的低迷有可能轉變爲崩盤。即使是最樂觀的判斷也是中國即將進入通縮階段，而當前全球經濟正處於疲弱狀態。