Is China different? Or must its borrowing binge, like most others, end in tears? This is now a hotly debated topic. On one side are those who predict a Chinese “Minsky moment” – a point in the credit cycle at which, as Hyman Minsky foretold, panic grips the financial system. On the other side are those who insist that China’s debt mountain poses no threat to the planned growth of the economy: the authorities say it will be above 7 per cent and above 7 per cent it will be. Which side is right? “Neither” is my answer. China will not have a financial meltdown. But the end of its credit addiction will result in lower growth, properly measured.
中國有什麼不一樣嗎？還是中國的借款熱潮必然會像其他多數國家那樣以眼淚收場？這是現在人們展開激烈辯論的一個話題。一方預測中國將出現「明斯基時刻」(Minsky moment)，根據美國經濟學家海曼•明斯基(Hyman Minsky)的預言，這是信貸週期中恐慌佔據金融體系的時刻。另一方則堅持表示，中國的鉅額債務不會對計劃中的經濟成長構成任何威脅：中國政府表示中國經濟增速將超過7%，那就一定會超過7%。哪一方說的對？我的答案是「都不對」。中國不會出現金融危機。但「信貸癮」的戒除將使增速放緩，節奏更穩。