緊縮

Do not blame Reinhart and Rogoff for austerity
學術觀點不應成爲緊縮政策的替罪羊


哈佛大學教授、前美國財長薩默斯:把緊縮政策歸咎於萊因哈特與羅戈夫是很荒唐的。推行緊縮措施的政客首先做出了自己的政策選擇,然後纔去四處尋找學術支撐。

The economics commentariat – and no small part of the political debate – has been consumed in the past few weeks with controversy surrounding a piece of research by my Harvard colleagues (and friends) Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. The article, published in 2010, had been widely interpreted as showing that economic growth is likely to stagnate in a given country once the ratio of its government debt to gross domestic product exceeded a threshold of 90 per cent.

過去數週,經濟評論——以及相當大一部分的政治爭論——都消耗在了我的哈佛同事(以及好友)卡門•萊因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)和肯尼思•羅戈夫(Kenneth Rogoff)的一項研究引發的論戰上。這篇文章發表於2010年,人們對此文的普遍解讀是,一旦一國政府債務與國內生產毛額(GDP)之比超過90%,該國經濟成長很可能陷入停滯。

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