China pessimists are claiming vindication as growth slows in the world’s second-largest economy. Optimists point out that Beijing has fiscal room to respond but there are risks to any short-term policy measures. A surge in bank-financed investment, for example, could boost growth but it would likely also increase the stock of non-performing loans in the banking system and set back the goal of rebalancing growth by promoting private consumption. An ageing population and a rocky leadership transition strengthen the bears’ case.
隨著世界第二大經濟體成長放緩，對中國持悲觀看法的人士聲稱自己的論點得到印證。對中國持樂觀看法的人士則指出，中國政府在財政方面有應對成長放緩的操作空間，但任何短期政策措施都帶有風險。例如，由銀行貸款支撐的投資飆升雖然能夠推動成長，但同時也很可能導致銀行體系內的不良貸款存量增加，挫敗旨在通過提振民間消費來實現成長再平衡的努力。中國人口的老齡化和領導層換屆的坎坷過程也對悲觀人士的論點形成了支撐。
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