Greece avoided an imminent default by taking a brave vote for more fiscal austerity on Wednesday. Europe and the International Monetary Fund will now release financing to enable Greece to service its debts through the summer. Yet there can be no doubt that this second bail-out must be the last of its kind. Either Greece and its eurozone partners will agree to a long-term solution, or the rioters in the streets will prevail next time that Greece is pushed to the brink.
Many of my colleagues in academia have blithely called on Greece to default, and thereby force an involuntary debt restructuring. I find such advice to be naive. Nobody can guarantee a managed default in today’s global financial system. Bank runs, a contagion to other countries, the triggering of credit default swaps and heated political recriminations within Europe are but some of the consequences that could quickly follow. An unravelling of the euro could not be excluded.
A default may indeed occur, but should never be a first or early resort. I say this not because of the sanctity of sovereign debt contracts, but out of pragmatism. I myself have helped to negotiate many sovereign debt restructurings, from Bolivia to Poland to Nigeria and beyond. But Greece is different. It is a developed economy. It has not collapsed into hyperinflation. It has not emerged from communism. Greece over-borrowed and overspent, then got caught in accounting shenanigans and the global financial meltdown. Now Greece needs to adjust, if that adjustment is within reason.