觀點中國經濟

DEVELOPING ECONOMIES CAN HELP CURE GLOBAL IMBALANCES
全球失衡與中國經濟成長模式


美國布魯金斯學會副會長德爾維什:中國不可能在一夜之間,在不影響成長的前提下,讓經常賬戶盈餘實現下降。中國只有讓實際匯率上升,才能改變其經濟成長模式。

China can no longer behave like China, because the US intends to behave much more like China, according to Larry Summers, director of President Barack Obama's National Economic Council. There is widespread consensus that global account imbalances – in particular the large current account deficit of the US and the large Chinese current account surplus – contributed to the financial crisis of 2008-09 by adding to excess liquidity in US financial markets and encouraging the development of toxic financial products. There is even greater agreement on the need to rebalance world demand to support and sustain recovery. American households and businesses have to rebuild their balance sheets, which requires higher private savings and a lower current account deficit. This, in turn, means lower net US demand for goods and services, which should be compensated by higher demand elsewhere, requiring the rest of the world to have more imports net of exports.

美國總統巴拉克•歐巴馬(Barack Obama)的美國國家經濟委員會(National Economic Council)主任拉里•薩默斯(Larry Summers)表示,中國不能再像中國以前那樣行事了,因爲美國打算表現得更像中國。人們達成的普遍共識是,全球賬戶失衡(特別是美國的鉅額經常賬戶赤字和中國的鉅額經常賬戶盈餘)加劇了美國金融市場的過剩流動性,並鼓勵了有毒金融產品的發展,從而促成了2008年至2009年的金融危機。人們甚至就全球需求再平衡以支持並維繫復甦的必要性達成了更重要共識。美國家庭和企業必須重建資產負債表,這需要增加私人儲蓄,減少經常賬戶赤字。這進而意味著減少美國對商品和服務的需求,由其它地區更高的需求予以抵消,這需要世界其它地區增加淨進口。

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