專欄臥底經濟學家

How to measure economies (and not get lost in the woods)

In the late 18th century, Johann Gottlieb Beckmann, a Saxon forester, hit upon the idea of systematically surveying Saxony's forests. He dispatched trained surveyors into a tract of woodland to hammer nails into every tree. Each man carried nails of five different colours, enabling them to grade trees by size. When every tree was marked and the men emerged, Beckmann counted the coloured nails left over to calculate the exploitable resources.

Efforts to measure what goes on in the economy have a chequered history. The political scientist James C. Scott, who unearthed the example of Beckmann, points out that forest planners tried to conform to Beckmann's theories, spacing with architectural precision trees of the same breed and age. The resulting forests were vulnerable to high winds and to disease.

Sir William Petty, an adviser to Oliver Cromwell, produced the first estimate of Britain's national income, which he put at £40m a year back in 1664. But Petty's surveys also made it easier for the English to exploit Ireland. William the First's Domesday book is both a historical treasure and the tool of a conqueror.

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臥底經濟學家

蒂姆•哈福德(Tim Harford)是英國《金融時報》的經濟學專欄作家,他撰寫兩個欄目:《親愛的經濟學家》和 《臥底經濟學家》。他寫過一本暢銷書也叫做《臥底經濟學家》,這本書已經被翻譯爲16種語言,他現在正在寫這本書的續集。哈福德也是BBC的一檔節目《相信我,我是經濟學家》(Trust Me, I’m an Economist)的主持人。他同妻子及兩個孩子一起住在倫敦。

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