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Wobbly jobs data leaves central bankers on shaky ground

Economists question whether official reports offer accurate guide to the labour market
Since the beginning of 2023, the final US non-farm payrolls number has been downgraded from the first estimate seven times

Employment figures are being closely watched by central bankers around the world as they try to work out when to cut interest rates this year. There’s just one problem: the data might be dodgy.

Swings in immigration, rapid changes to working conditions in the wake of the pandemic and lower participation in polls are combining to create a big problem for labour market statisticians.

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