There is a bubble in the Chinese government bond market — or so, at least, the People’s Bank of China would fervently like to believe. A bubble would be a worrying risk to financial stability. The existence of such a risk, however, is far more palatable than the plausible alternative: that bond markets are sending out an increasingly dire signal of concern about the prospects for China’s economy, the danger of deflation and the need for a change of course.
中國政府債券市場存在泡沫——至少中國央行(PBoC)熱切地希望相信這一點。泡沫會對金融穩定構成令人擔憂的風險。然而，這種風險的存在遠比另一種可信的情況更容易接受，那就是債券市場正發出越來越可怕的信號，表明人們對中國經濟前景、通縮的危險以及需要改變方向感到擔憂。
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