Sometime over the next few weeks, China could reveal that its long-dreaded inflection-point — where the world’s most populous nation begins to shrink — has either arrived, or is extremely close. Demographics may be a slowly painted picture of a future that has already happened, but moments like this deliver the instant psychological jolt of era change. In this case, say fund managers, the shift may also mark the emergence of mass loneliness as its own distinctive investment theme, with Asia at its forefront.
When Beijing declares the official number of births in 2022, some expect the tally to show a seventh straight year of decline and a record low of about 10mn. That figure, according to reports citing the forecasts of independent demographer He Yafu, will probably come in below the total number of deaths, creating a long-anticipated crossover that may have been expedited by Covid.
Whenever it arrives, many of the narratives around this extraordinary moment — the challenges of a massive ageing population, contracting labour force and burdensome healthcare implications being just a few — are already central concerns in Beijing. But some more global ones, including India’s approach to becoming the world’s most populous country and whether China’s economy is actually still on track to overtake America’s will also suddenly feel more acute.
