It has always been entertaining to read predictions that fail the test of time. In 1865, as engineers were racing to develop the telephone, an American editor sniffed: “Well-informed people know that it is impossible to transmit the human voice over wires . . . and that, were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.”A more recent favourite is the 2007 interview with Steve Ballmer, then chief executive of Microsoft, in which he confidently declared: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” About one in five smartphones sold globally is now an iPhone.
每當讀到那些經不住時間考驗的預測時，都會覺得很有趣。1865年，許多工程師競相研發電話機，一位美國主編嗤之以鼻：「有見識的人都知道，人的聲音不可能通過電線傳輸……就算能，那種東西也不會有任何實用價值。」
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