專欄經濟學

Drive a gas-guzzler, buy a coal mine and other uses of reverse logic
開耗油車、買煤礦:「逆向邏輯」運用示例

‘The perfectly logical case for employing reverse logic’
哈福德:當今有些問題可以通過顛倒尋常的邏輯,做出與人們的預期完全相反的事情來解決,比如購買煤礦和駕駛耗油的汽車。

Readers with long memories may recall the brief, inglorious UK fuel shortage of a few weeks ago, which was mostly caused by the rush to refuel for fear the pumps would run dry. Some petrol stations imposed a limit on how much you could buy — say, £25 of fuel and no more. It seems sensible enough, but a friend of mine (an economist) suggested this was the opposite of what was really needed. A maximum purchase encouraged more visits and more queues. Instead, petrol stations should’ve imposed a minimum purchase: nobody was allowed to buy fuel if their tank was more than a quarter full.

記性好的讀者可能記得幾周前英國經歷的短暫而不光彩的燃料短缺,它的主要原因是衆人擔心加油站會沒油,因而一窩蜂跑去加油。一些加油站對顧客可以購買的數量設置了上限,例如25英鎊的燃油。這似乎是明智的,但我的一位朋友(一位經濟學家)認爲,這與真正需要採取的做法恰恰相反。設定一個購買上限,只會鼓勵人們多次光顧加油站,加入排隊的車流。相反,加油站應該規定一個最低購買資格門檻:不允許油箱內仍有四分之一以上燃油的人購買燃料。

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臥底經濟學家

蒂姆•哈福德(Tim Harford)是英國《金融時報》的經濟學專欄作家,他撰寫兩個欄目:《親愛的經濟學家》和 《臥底經濟學家》。他寫過一本暢銷書也叫做《臥底經濟學家》,這本書已經被翻譯爲16種語言,他現在正在寫這本書的續集。哈福德也是BBC的一檔節目《相信我,我是經濟學家》(Trust Me, I’m an Economist)的主持人。他同妻子及兩個孩子一起住在倫敦。

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