As President Donald Trump keeps insisting to voters, the American economy is strong. The unemployment rate is at record lows. Wages have ticked up at the lower end of the labour market. US stocks remain near record highs.
Yet there is another reality, one that Democratic candidates fighting it out in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary elections as well as the Super Tuesday primaries in March will be looking to exploit. Opportunities for many Americans, particularly younger people, middle-skilled employees, gig workers and minorities, have eroded in the past two decades — thanks to globalisation, technological job disruption and a superstar economy that rewards top performers far more than others. This narrative helps progressive candidate Bernie Sanders and to a lesser extent Elizabeth Warren.
Both versions are true — not only in the US, but in many other developed economies. A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute examining growth in OECD countries since 2000 finds that work opportunities have increased everywhere: 45m more working age people are employed now than in 2000 in the 22 countries studied. “Rich countries have created a lot of jobs, and that should be celebrated,” says McKinsey director and co-author James Manyika. He cites central bank stimulus, growing demand for services, rising government employment and a broad recovery as key factors in that job growth.