Being wrong does not appear to be a restraint for those making market predictions. The S&P 500 is down 7.7 per cent for the year while the 10-year US Treasury yield isn’t that far from where it began the year. That is quite the opposite of what was being forecast.
This won’t temaper the soothsayers, so let me add my two cents worth. I admit to being uncertain about the near term and so prefer to rely on the facts at hand. The facts suggest one should maintain a short duration on assets across the board.
First, there is no inflation anywhere that matters. Wage increases haven’t turned into runaway inflation in the US, Chinese inflation is subdued and European inflation expectations keep being revised lower.
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