Bull markets, it is said, climb a wall of worry. When the last worrier turns into a fully invested optimist, the market has nowhere to go but down. That might be what has just happened: so much optimism was already in the prices of financial assets — in the US, above all — that once worry returned they had nowhere to go but down. How far might unfolding events exacerbate the worries? A long way, is the answer.
據說,牛市爬的是一堵憂慮之牆。當最後一位擔憂者變成一個滿倉的樂觀者時,這個牛市就再也無法向上爬,而只能下去。這或許就是剛剛發生的事情:金融資產價格已經計入如此多的樂觀情緒——尤其是在美國——以至於一旦憂慮重現,價格就只能下跌。未來的事態發展可能在多大程度上加劇這種憂慮?答案是很大。
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