China has been giving plenty of assurances this week of the inherent resilience of the renminbi. Betting that it will slide is “ridiculous and impossible”, officials assert.
Yet rhetoric alone is unlikely to satisfy investors, who have struggled to interpret the twists and turns in China’s currency policy since the shock devaluation in August. Confusion over China’s intentions for the renminbi, and its ability to control it, was a big factor in the financial turbulence that rocked global markets at the start of the year. To many onlookers, a much bigger depreciation, which would have profound effects on global trade and capital flows, seems all too plausible.
The main concern, however, should not be the renminbi’s relatively modest fall against the dollar. Volatility may be unsettling but, measured against the currencies of China’s trading partners, recent moves in the renminbi look much less alarming.