It would be tempting to ascribe the large drop in global risk assets last week to the onset of Federal Reserve tightening and a further meltdown in commodity prices. No doubt these factors played a part, but the dominant force was probably the same one that shook the markets in August – the fear of a sudden devaluation of the Chinese renminbi. This would export deflationary forces from China’s industrial sector to the rest of the world, and would interact very badly with the start of a monetary tightening cycle in the US.
有人會忍不住將不久前全球風險資產大幅下跌歸咎於美聯準(Fed)開始收緊和大宗商品價格進一步下跌。這些因素無疑有一定影響，但主要原因可能還是今年8月導致市場動盪的因素——對人民幣突然貶值的擔憂。這將讓中國工業部門的通縮力量出口至全球其他地區，並與美國開始收緊貨幣政策產生極其糟糕的相互作用。
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