“Great news,” says the captain. “The ship is sinking, so we’re launching the life rafts.” It is hard to know how to feel at this point — elated because salvation is at hand, or despondent because the vessel is going down?
No such dilemmas for bank shareholders. Eurozone banks are down 15 per cent in the past four months as speculation has grown about the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme. If sovereign QE goes ahead later this week, it will confirm just how bad a state the eurozone economy is in.
QE will have some benefits for banks. Their holdings of sovereign bonds will rise in value. According to Morgan Stanley, sovereign bonds account for about 10 per cent of bank assets in Spain and Italy, the highest level in 15 years. QE could also boost lending — by pushing interest rates down it should ease supply. And, by pushing the euro down it might encourage exporters to borrow more to grow their businesses. For those banks that still have bond trading business, QE could also lead to higher levels of trading activity.