貨幣政策

Forget about inflation targeting – try ‘positive ambiguity’
不要「死」盯通膨目標


滙豐首席經濟學家簡世勳:金融危機證明,央行刻板地盯住通膨目標是有害的。相反,貨幣政策必須把握一系列可能彼此衝突的目標,運用「積極模糊」的戰略。

If anything has survived the global financial crisis, it is inflation targeting. This is odd. After all, pre-crisis, many economists and policy makers in developed markets enthusiastically embraced the “Great Moderation” – the idea that wise monetary policies had not only helped bring inflation to heel but also, as a result, delivered more stable economic activity. “No more boom and bust” was not the boast of politicians alone: it became a core belief of the economics establishment.

如果說什麼東西挺過了全球金融危機,那就是通膨目標制。這很奇怪。畢竟,危機之前,發達市場的許多經濟學家和政策制定者曾熱情地擁抱「大緩和」(Great Moderation)——這個理念是指,明智的貨幣政策不但有助於把通膨率保持在低水準,而且由此帶來更加穩定的經濟活動。「不再出現大繁榮和崩盤的交替」當時不僅是政客們的吹噓,它也成了經濟學體制內人士的一個核心信念。

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