Ukraine is a distraction. Syria is a distraction. For believers in America’s “pivot to Asia”, the centre of Barack Obama’s foreign policy must remain the region of the future – Asia. The pivoters will be delighted that this week – despite a raging crisis with Russia – the president is embarking on a four-nation tour of Asia, beginning in Japan.
But not everybody is pleased. To its critics, the pivot has left the White House in thrall to a vague notion that Asia is the “future” – causing America to neglect much more dangerous problems in the Middle East and Europe. The sceptics argue that the Obama administration’s lofty focus on Asia has encouraged the likes of Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad to use force, confident that America’s eyes are fixed on the Far East. Just last week, Tomasz Siemoniak, the Polish defence minister, suggested that, in the light of Ukrainian crisis, the US should now “re-pivot” to Europe.
So was the whole pivot a mistake? Not really. During the next decade, China is likely to become the world’s largest economy. It is the only plausible long-term rival to America as a global superpower. Asia, as a whole, is increasingly central to the world economy. So for long-term economic and strategic reasons, it still makes sense for the US to spend more time strengthening its position in Asia – and less time focusing on wars in the Middle East and power struggles in Europe.