The most sobering lesson of the global financial crisis was that developments expected to increase resilience – in that case, the “originate and distribute” model of finance – turned out to reduce it. Does a similar danger now threaten stability? Yes. The next round of global illiquidity might derive from foreign currency bonds of non-financial companies of emerging economies. The centre would be asset managers, not banks.
全球金融危機最令人警醒的教訓是，本以爲能強化金融體系的發明——在此次危機中是「放款加轉銷」(originate and distribute)的金融模式——結果卻弱化了金融體系。類似的風險現在還會危及穩定嗎？答案是肯定的。下一輪全球流動性不足，可能源自新興經濟體非金融類公司發行的外幣債券。屆時主角不是銀行，而是資產管理公司。
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