China is America’s single largest foreign creditor, holding about 8 per cent of the stock of US Treasuries. Most Chinese netizens and opinion makers are not knowledgeable about the country’s budget dispute. But almost all Chinese people understand that the US government has been playing the world economic game to its advantage.
The US issues, at rates of almost zero, Treasuries that are bought by investors all over the world. So long as the federal government increases the debt stock at a pace slower than the US gross domestic product growth rate (usually 2-4 per cent a year) minus the real interest rate (zero, or even negative in recent years), it can roll over the debt almost for ever, never worrying about paying it back.
What is intriguing to most Chinese analysts is that Congress and the White House do not seem to understand the game’s benefits. The evidence is the US budgetary mess. Bitter fights over government budgets are commonplace among politicians all over the world. This is a good thing. But a technical default OF some of the existing Treasury bonds would be the beginning of the end for the wonderful game the US federal government has been playing.