Never try to call an election in the autumn by invoking the polls of the summer. Western voters have shed ironclad party loyalties; classic predictors like faith, class and city-dwelling are as reliable as the weather report. And yet, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats are holding steady at 42 per cent, up from 34 per cent in the 2009 contest. This is a shade more than the combined take of the opposition Social Democrats and Greens. The German chancellor is heading for four more years in power.
切勿基於夏天的民調預判秋天的選舉。西方選民已不再像以往那樣堅定地忠於某一黨派。信仰、階級以及城市出身等經典預測指標的可靠度就像天氣預報一樣。不過，目前安格拉•梅克爾(Angela Merkel)的基督教民主聯盟(CDU)的民意支持率穩定在42%的水準上（而2009年競選時的民意支持率爲34%），這個數字比反對黨社會民主黨(SPD)與綠黨(Greens)的合計民意支持率還要高出一點。默克爾有望在德國總理的寶座上繼續坐上4年。
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