The announcement that China’s economy expanded by an annual 7.5 per cent in the three months to June came as a positive surprise. True, this figure is well below the double-digit growth rates recorded for much of the past decade. Yet after the recent string of weak data, investors had feared a more abrupt slowdown.
Of course, the reliability of China’s national accounts remains a matter for debate. Other indicators, such as railway freight, paint a less rosy picture than the official estimates of gross domestic product. But to the extent that government figures can be trusted, markets should draw some comfort from the fact that the slowdown has stabilised. The economy did marginally better in the second quarter than in the three months to March.
Dig below the headline figure, however, and it is clear why 2013 remains a tricky year for China. Beijing wants to move away from its investment-led growth model. Yet in the three months to June, investment remained the single largest driver of economic expansion. Its contribution to growth was twice as large as consumption. Were local governments and state-owned enterprises to stop pouring cash into new buildings and roads, growth could suddenly stop.