Supporters and critics of the UK government’s fiscal stance were keenly awaiting this month’s visit by the International Monetary Fund. In April, the IMF shifted its stance on the coalition’s austerity programme and made the case for greater flexibility. Yesterday, it shifted again, at least in terms of its language.
The mission’s conclusion on fiscal policy is a mixed bag. George Osborne will be delighted the IMF has toned down its earlier criticisms. Together with the recent string of good economic data, this will strengthen his message that the economy is on the right track. Yet, critics can also find something to like in what the IMF said. The fund recommends that Mr Osborne should “bring forward planned capital investment”, borrowing more today and paying for it through deeper cuts tomorrow.
The chancellor should be relaxed about the critique. What matters is that the overall size of the programme of fiscal consolidation stays the same. Whether a few billions of capital spending are brought forward does not matter and may, in fact, be desirable. The same is true of the composition of the fiscal envelope. As the IMF argues, Mr Osborne should cut deeper on current spending to invest more.