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Rogoff, Reinhart and the spell of magic numbers
經濟學存在「神奇數字」嗎?


FT專欄作家布里坦:人類對神奇數字的徒勞探索永遠不會停止,哈佛大學教授羅戈夫和萊因哈特的故事就是這種堂吉訶德式追求的最新一例。

Humanity will never cease its futile search for magic numbers. The latest example of this quixotic quest is to be found in the saga of Harvard professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, who suggested that a debt to gross domestic product ratio above 90 per cent was bad for economic growth. Those conservative politicians and their counsellors who based their advocacy of strict fiscal policy on this magic ratio have retreated with egg on their faces.

人類對神奇數字的徒勞探索永遠不會停止。哈佛大學(Harvard University)教授肯尼斯•羅戈夫(Kenneth Rogoff)和卡門•萊因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)的故事就是這種堂吉訶德式追求的最新一例:二人認爲,債務與國內生產毛額(GDP)之比高於90%將不利於經濟成長。一些保守派政客及其顧問以這一「神奇比率」爲依據,倡導嚴苛的財政政策。如今,這些人已經因爲受到了羞辱而被迫退卻。

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