In the Middle East, it will be a rough year that will hinder Barack Obama’s “pivot” towards Asia. And there is even more unpleasant news: the Assad regime in Syria seems to be slipping towards its end but that is likely to lead to greater chaos. A military resolution, as opposed to a diplomatic one, will mean a violent power struggle and a period of sectarian retribution. The omens are also inauspicious in Iraq and Libya, where there seems a high likelihood of increased instability, power struggles and anti-western sentiment.
This is likely to drag the focus of western diplomacy back to the unfinished business of these three struggling countries and away from any renewed concentration on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or Iran’s nuclear programme. On the latter, those who have declared that the Iranian nuclear issue would be brought to a head this year may therefore be disappointed.
In Africa, even the International Monetary Fund has jumped on its growth story. It is a more useful lens to look at Africa through than that of poverty and aid failure. But it disguises the challenges ahead. At least a quarter of Africa’s growth will come directly from energy and minerals, and a lot more still from their impact on other sectors. Across the continent, governments and decent oil and mineral companies with a long-term mindset are struggling to contain the dangers of corruption. This resource boom could make, or unmake, the continent.