The political comeback of Shinzo Abe is one of the stranger twists in the recent, convoluted history of Japanese politics. Five years – and five prime ministers – ago, when he suddenly resigned after an ignominious year in office, few would have predicted a return. Back then, his mission to create a “beautiful Japan” less ashamed of its wartime history was out of kilter with a population more exercised by continued economic stagnation.
Much has changed since then. Most important is China’s more assertive push to reclaim the Japanese-controlled Senkaku islands, which Beijing calls Diaoyu. The so-called “Senkaku shock”, the latest bout of which unleashed violent anti-Japan demonstrations across China, has convinced many Japanese that a newly risen China is something to be feared. That plays into the hands of Mr Abe, who has argued that Japan should ditch its pacifist constitution, which forbids it from having an army or a navy. Mr Abe would also like to increase military spending. His view looks reasonable.
The second factor to swing Mr Abe’s way is the lousy performance of the Democratic Party of Japan, which has raced through three prime ministers in three years. The DPJ was elected in 2009 amid hope that it could rejuvenate Japan after more than half a century of political domination by Mr Abe’s Liberal Democratic party. But the DPJ failed to seize the moment. Japan continues to drift.