Climate change or a passing storm? Some investment bankers worry that they are suffering a structural change in their world. Others still believe it is just the cycle. The risk, following strong third-quarter fixed income trading at US investment banks, is that those in the latter camp go easy on cost cutting and chase earnings instead. Citicorp’s fixed income, currencies and commodities revenue was up almost two-thirds year on year; trading at JPMorganand Morgan Stanleywas up one-third. Investors can expect the same as Europe’s investment banks start reporting this week. But it would be wrong to think that things are looking better: trading still relies on highly artificial and temporary stimulus measures.
這究竟是氣候發生了變化，還是隻是一場過境的風暴？一些投資銀行家擔心，他們的行業正在經歷一場結構性轉變。另一些投資銀行家則仍認爲，投行業只是受到了週期性因素的影響。第三季度，美國投行固定收益類資產交易表現強勁，但相應的風險在於，上述後一類投資銀行家會放鬆成本削減力度並轉而追逐利潤。花旗集團(Citicorp)固定收益、外匯及大宗商品(FICC)收入同比成長近三分之二；摩根大通(JPMorgan)和摩根史坦利(Morgan Stanley)成長三分之一。投資者可以想見，當歐洲投行本週開始公佈季報時，它們的表現將與美國同行類似。但如果就此認爲行業整體形勢正在好轉，那就錯了：交易業務仍仰仗高度人爲和短期性的刺激措施。